PRGS Forecast


Bullish Case: Progress Software continues benefiting from AI sector growth and recent acquisitions, bolstering positive price trends, supported by stronger-than-expected earnings performance.


Bearish Case: Declining net income, recent security vulnerabilities, and insider selling could create downward pressure on stock prices, especially if investor confidence wanes.


Potential Outcomes: 50% AI-driven growth aiding price boost, 30% decline due to earnings miss or net income drops, 20% neutral movement balancing bullish and bearish factors.


Trading Oracle: Given the current backwardation in the term structure and mean-reverting historical price action, execute a short-term bearish debit spread. Buy PRGS 09/20/2024 55.00 P and sell PRGS 09/20/2024 50.00 P. This strategy leverages current high implied volatility and potential downside, providing a favorable risk-reward ratio.


July 19, 2024


Progress Software Forecast

PRGS      Progress Software











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PRGS



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.71)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.5)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.38)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.41)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PRGS



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.38)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.41)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.5)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.71)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PRGS



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.71)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.5)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.38)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.41)





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