PZA Forecast


Bullish Case: PZA is historically mean-reverting, and its 2024 price changes are +0.9% YoY and +2.9% in the past two years. Strong ETF inflows from institutional investors can provide stability and potential growth.


Bearish Case: PZA has low implied volatility and has underperformed over the past ten years. A trim in institutional holdings and a recent -0.8% price drop indicate potential uncertainty.


Potential Outcomes: Strong institutional support (65%), moderate price change (-3.5% to +3.5%) (45%), continued low volatility (90%) until new financial policies shift probability distributions.


Trading Oracle: To capitalize on PZA’s stable price, implement a credit spread (Helium Short Volatility). Use bull put spreads for July 2024 expirations, focusing on strikes 22-24 with low volatility (5.4% IV). This strategy has a high probability of profit, leveraging mean reversion with upside support.


June 28, 2024


Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Forecast

PZA      Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco National AMT-Free Municipal Bond











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PZA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.57)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.15)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.16)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.34)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PZA



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.15)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.16)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.34)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.57)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PZA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.57)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.15)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.16)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.34)





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