Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Ryder System's outlook is bolstered by positive future revisions from Fitch Ratings, ongoing operating performance improvements, and an attractive price-to-book ratio of 1.6 indicating potential undervaluation and investor confidence.

Bearish Case: The current high implied volatility suggests market uncertainty and possible disinterest from investors, threatening to impede price growth and creating opportunity for significant downward shifts.

Potential Outcomes:

• 1. 45% chance: Moderate price increase due to continued investor confidence in fundamentals.
• 2. 35% chance: Stagnation driven by lingering market uncertainty and low investor activity.
• 3. 15% chance: Price decline due to unforeseen negative economic events.
• 4. 5% chance: Sudden market shift leading to significant volatility spike.

Trading Oracle: Opt for a bullish debit spread by buying $165 call and selling $170 call, expiring in late December. Balances limited risk with high reward potential given the current bullish conditions despite volatility. Consider holding this position to capture upward movement while hedging against downside risk.

December 17, 2024