RCS Forecast


Bullish Case: RCS shows mean reversion, currently up 25.8% from two years ago. Historical returns indicate potential for gains, especially given proximity to dividend payout.


Bearish Case: Despite recent gains, RCS is still down significantly from past five and ten-year prices. Historical data indicate consistent likelihood of negative returns short-term.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued mean reversion to historical highs (30% chance).

2. Short-term drop post ex-dividend date (50% chance).

3. Strong gains leveraging dividend reinvestments (20% chance).


Trading Oracle: Given mean reversion and upcoming dividend, recommend credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility) capturing premium pre-ex-dividend. Expecting slight short-term drop, target expiry within 30-60 days. Construct position carefully to manage risk.


July 20, 2024


PIMCO Strategic Income Forecast

RCS      PIMCO Strategic Income











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TECL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TECL  Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares (0.91)


WIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WIX  Wix.com (0.9)


ROST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROST  Ross Stores (0.9)


ISRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ISRG  Intuitive Surgical (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RCS



TIXT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TIXT  TELUS International (Cda) Inc (Sub Voting) (0.0)


POR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   POR  Portland General Electric (-0.0)


GRAB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GRAB  Grab Holdings Limited (-0.01)


USO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   USO  United States Commodity Funds (-0.01)


TX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TX  Ternium S.A. - (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RCS



DOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOG  ProShares Short Dow30 (-0.87)


SDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDOW  ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (-0.87)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.87)


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.87)


TECS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TECS  Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares (-0.88)





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