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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: A favorable bullish scenario emerges with improving historical returns over the past 2 years aligning with rising implied volatility for higher strike options, signaling increased upward price momentum. Regulatory clarity could further enhance investor confidence.

Bearish Case: Conversely, a bearish outlook could arise from persistent regulatory concerns and high implied volatility at lower strike prices, potentially triggering sharp declines, especially with the current flat price action observed recently.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 35% chance of moderate decline (-2% to -5%) due to regulatory impacts.

2. 20% chance of rallying above $35 based on positive market event outcomes.

3. 30% chance of continued range-bound trading ($30-$34).

4. 15% chance of market disruption causing severe drop (-10% or more).

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October 07, 2024