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RIO Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Increased demand for clean energy and metals, alongside strategic investments in growth projects, positions RIO for a price rally beyond $62.50, especially with 36% implied volatility indicating trading opportunities.



Bearish Case: Ongoing geopolitical risks and falling commodity prices may pressure RIO, hindering price recovery. Market sentiment suggests a potential drop below $60, especially with current low trading volumes.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 60%: Recovery in demand, driving RIO above $65 by mid-2025.

2. 30%: Commodity price dips, hitting $58 by February 2025.

3. 10%: Regulatory actions lead to unexpected operational costs, risking further declines.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish credit spread selling $62.5 calls and buying $65 calls, aiming for ~30 days expiration, capitalizing on current mean-reverting price action and market volatility. This strategy leverages decreased volatility in upcoming months, with high probability of profit due to the flat implied volatility curve.


December 18, 2024


Rio Tinto Forecast

RIO        Rio Tinto

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APTV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APTV  Aptiv (0.71)


PDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PDD  Pinduoduo (0.64)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RIO


CAPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAPR  Capricor Therapeutics (-0.0)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVXY  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (0.0)


ASPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASPN  Aspen Aerogels (-0.01)


ZM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZM  Zoom Video Communications (0.01)


ARKK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARKK  ARK Innovation (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RIO


MHK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MHK  Mohawk Industries (-0.59)


CYBR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CYBR  CyberArk Software (-0.59)


ICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ICE  Intercontinental Exchange (-0.6)


CINF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CINF  Cincinnati Financial (-0.61)


UTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UTI  Universal Technical Institute (-0.63)







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