RL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: RL's strong brand appeal and sustainability efforts bolster investor confidence, driving potential upward momentum despite stagnant market conditions.




Bearish Case: Ongoing investigations and economic headwinds pose risks to RL's reputation and sales, potentially hindering price growth amid market volatility.




Potential Outcomes: High-profile events boost stock by 10% (40% probability); ongoing investigations lead to a 5% drop (30% chance); market stagnation yields minimal change (30% chance).




Trading Oracle:

Leverage Bullish Short Volatility suitable due to RL's stable implied volatility and bullish sentiment. Sell ATM put options and buy more OOTM puts, enhancing returns on low-volatility plays, with expected edge and positive trade delta. Capitalize on potential upward momentum.



March 19, 2025


Ralph Lauren Forecast

RL        Ralph Lauren











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PTON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTON  Peloton Interactive (0.87)


FLEX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLEX  Flex (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RL



LLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LLY  Lilly(Eli) (0.0)


CRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRC  California Resources (0.0)


SEE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SEE  Sealed Air (-0.01)


HAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HAS  Hasbro (0.01)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RL



DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.82)


CAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAL  Caleres (-0.83)


WFRD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WFRD  Weatherford International plc - New (-0.83)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.84)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.84)









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