Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Rambus shows resilient fundamentals and recent strong returns (+23.3% over last month) could indicate a bullish trend. With Helium's implied volatility forecasts suggesting upcoming positive developments, a rally toward $60 is plausible given market sentiment.

Bearish Case: Insider trading flags and market volatility concerns may undermine investor confidence in RMBS. Recent high implied volatility spikes (up to 500%) signal potential price swings that could lead to a drop back toward $50, especially if broader market instability occurs.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price rises towards $60 (40% chance).

2. Price retracement to $50 due to volatility (35% chance).

3. Significant insider trading news leads to a drop below $45 (25% chance).

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish long volatility strategy: buy RMBS $55 calls while selling $57.50 calls, leveraging current high implied volatility (93.8%) for superior risk-reward. Expect +116% return potential, aligning with bullish sentiment as well-structured volatility underpins strategies with positive edge and a 41% probability of profit.

November 15, 2024