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RNP Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: RNP's strong portfolio in REITs and preferred stocks may thrive with anticipated interest rate cuts, potentially spurring a 20% price increase as market confidence revives, supported by historical mean-reversion patterns.



Bearish Case: Persistently high interest rates could lead to a 10% NAV decline, diminishing RNP's yield attractiveness and prompting investor shifts towards higher-yield options, exacerbating price pressures.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Interest rate cuts by late 2024 (35% probability).

2. Continued high rates leading to a 10% NAV reduction (25% probability).

3. Stable rates permitting moderate 5% growth (40% probability).



Trading Oracle: Implement a credit spread strategy by selling $22 puts and buying $19 puts on RNP, targeting stability through Q1 2025. This bet on low volatility counts on RNP's mean-reverting characteristics and hedges against downside risk with a favorable reward:risk ratio.


November 21, 2024


Cohen & Steers REIT & Preferred Income Fund Forecast

RNP        Cohen & Steers REIT & Preferred Income Fund

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with RNP


ICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ICE  Intercontinental Exchange (0.9)


MHK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MHK  Mohawk Industries (0.87)


TRP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRP  TC Energy (0.87)


COMP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMP  Compass (0.86)


SPYV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYV  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RNP


DBX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DBX  Dropbox (-0.0)


RRR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRR  Red Rock Resorts (0.0)


WY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WY  Weyerhaeuser (-0.01)


PENN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PENN  Penn National Gaming (-0.01)


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RNP


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.74)


CRSR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRSR  Corsair Gaming (-0.75)


CAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAR  Avis Budget (-0.76)


AZUL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZUL  Azul (-0.76)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.8)







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