Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Roku's strategic pricing and Black Friday promotions could significantly enhance user acquisition. Recent innovations in content and ads may bolster revenues and user engagement, leading to a potential price rebound.

Bearish Case: Lingering ad market pressures and potential competition from new players, coupled with high implied volatility (up to 500% in some options), may deter investor confidence, leading to further declines in share prices.

Potential Outcomes:

• 60%: Successful Black Friday sales drive significant user growth.
• 25%: Competitors erode market share despite promotions.
• 10%: High ad volatility pressures stock performance.
• 5%: Positive partnerships lead to favorable sentiment.

Trading Oracle: Given high implied volatility (up to 500% in options), consider a bullish call debit spread on $70/$75 until early December targeting an upside post-Black Friday. Favorable risk/reward ratio aligns with projected user growth. Short-term outlook favors volatility-driven opportunities.

November 24, 2024