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SABR Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: SABR's historical mean reversion suggests potential upside. The current implied volatility indicates heightened market expectations, which could lead to a recovery in pricing as strategic partnerships progress.



Bearish Case: Continued market uncertainty and high implied volatility (over 90%) suggest potential downside risk. If Sabre's recent performance falters, it could trigger further declines, especially if sentiment shifts again.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Robust performance from partnerships (60%)

2. Ongoing losses leading to price stagnation (25%)

3. Significant market volatility triggering declines (15%).



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying SABR $4.00 call options while selling $4.50 calls, capitalizing on expected upward movement in the next 57 days. This strategy aligns with potential bullish momentum while managing risk, targeting 25-30% return.


October 25, 2024











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SABR


IJH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IJH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap (0.86)


SSRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSRM  SSR Mining (0.85)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (0.83)


MANU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MANU  Manchester United Plc. (0.8)


VLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLY  Valley National Bancorp (0.79)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SABR


IBB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IBB  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Biotechnology (-0.0)


AXTA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXTA  Axalta Coating Systems (0.0)


MCHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCHI  BTC iShares MSCI China (0.0)


APAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APAM  Artisan Partners Asset (-0.0)


ALT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALT  Altimmune (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SABR


NNOX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NNOX  Nano X Imaging (-0.72)


SMCI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMCI  Super Micro Computer (-0.73)


SM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SM  SM Energy (-0.73)


VLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLO  Valero Energy (-0.75)


MPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPC  Marathon Petroleum (-0.79)







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