SAM Forecast


Bullish Case: Strong brand recognition and potential M&A activity could lead to significant price appreciation.


Bearish Case: Weak seltzer sales and high competition pose significant downside risk, especially with stagnant growth.


Potential Outcomes: Sideways trend (50%), modest rebound (30%), significant decline (20%).


Trading Oracle: Exploit backwardation in volatility term structure. Engage in $300-$320 bull call debit spreads expiring in December 2024, targeting a modest rebound with controlled downside. Anticipate 30% upside, 70% neutral/downside potential.


July 17, 2024


Boston Beer Co. Forecast

SAM      Boston Beer Co.











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SAM



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.8)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.63)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.45)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.76)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SAM



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.45)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.63)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.76)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.8)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SAM



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.8)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.63)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.45)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.76)





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