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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish

Bullish Case: SARK shows strong mean-reversion potential, with implied volatilities suggesting an upcoming price recognition opportunity. The term structure indicates stability, setting the stage for bullish sentiment as call volumes exceed puts, hinting at investor optimism.

Bearish Case: Despite some signs of stability, the high implied volatility across strike prices points to significant market skepticism. A bearish trend could emerge if broader market pressures act against the ARKK sectors that SARK covers, prompting further selling.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price rebound to $40 (45% chance), due to mean reversion and bullish sentiment.

2. Stabilization around $34 (35% chance).

3. Decline to $30 (15% chance), prompted by external market disruptions.

4. Spike to $50 (5% chance), driven by unexpected favorable news.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread: Buy SARK 09/20 $36 calls, sell $38 calls. This takes advantage of high volatility with a favorable reward/risk profile, targeting potential upward movements while limiting risk for a modest investment. Likely to capture any near-term volatility spikes.

August 15, 2024


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SARK


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (0.83)


CRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRK  Comstock Resources (0.69)


APD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APD  Air Products & Chemicals (0.68)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (0.67)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (0.65)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SARK


EVLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVLV  Evolv (0.01)


VDE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VDE  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Energy (-0.01)


MTCH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTCH  Match (-0.01)


GOEV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GOEV  Canoo (-0.01)


COO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COO  Cooper Companies (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SARK


ARVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARVN  Arvinas (-0.87)


PLAB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLAB  Photronics (-0.87)


ASO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASO  Academy Sports and Outdoors (-0.89)


HST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HST  Host Hotels & Resorts (-0.9)


ALT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALT  Altimmune (-0.91)



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