SAVA Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Promising Simufilam trial data and significant insider buying could propel SAVA upwards. Upcoming Phase 3 data readouts by year-end may boost stock. Helium's implied volatility forecast higher than the market underscores potential for significant price action.


Bearish Case: Persistent legal challenges and allegations of data manipulation, alongside high failure rate of Alzheimer’s drugs, present ongoing risks. Recent indictment of a collaborator and ongoing federal probes could further depress investor sentiment.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Simufilam sees favorable Phase 3 outcomes (45%) driving the stock higher.

2. Legal challenges resolved (15%), improving sentiment.

3. Continued legal troubles (20%), dragging down the stock.

4. Phase 3 failure (20%) leading to sharp declines.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish long volatility strategy given elevated Helium implied volatility. Buy Aug 16, 2024 $20 call and sell $25 call to capitalize on potential price jump post Phase 3 outcomes. This strategy offers high reward:risk and favorable probabilities based on implied volatilities.


July 16, 2024


Cassava Sciences Forecast

SAVA      Cassava Sciences











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SAVA



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.01)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.03)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.12)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.41)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SAVA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.12)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.03)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.01)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.41)





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