SCO Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: SCO's low price and mean-reversion potential, paired with high implied volatility, suggest upside potential if oil demand rises due to geopolitical developments.




Bearish Case: SCO's historical returns indicate persistent losses, compounded by high volatility, suggesting more downside if economic conditions and oil demand falter.




Potential Outcomes: 40% chance of a continued bearish trend due to prolonged oversupply, 35% chance of volatile swings, 25% chance of a rally driven by geopolitical shifts.




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January 11, 2025


ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil Forecast

SCO        ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SCO



RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (0.63)


MCD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCD  McDonald's (0.6)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (0.59)


UA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UA  Under Armour (0.57)


S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (0.56)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SCO



BLBD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLBD  Blue Bird (0.0)


SKYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SKYT  SkyWater Technology (0.0)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVXY  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (0.0)


DE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DE  Deere (0.01)


MT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MT  New York Shares (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SCO



OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.56)


FENY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FENY  Fidelity Covington Trust - Fidelity MSCI Energy Index (-0.58)


GTE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTE  Gran Tierra Energy (-0.64)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (-0.67)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (-0.71)









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