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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Positive sentiment surrounding SEB’s operational improvements and historical undervaluation suggests strong potential for price recovery, especially with favorable market conditions and increasing pork margins supporting future growth.

Bearish Case: Ongoing political turmoil and challenges related to election integrity in Georgia could deter investor confidence, potentially leading to price declines and extended volatility for SEB in the upcoming months.

Potential Outcomes:

1) 30% chance of recovery above $3600 due to improved operational fundamentals.

2) 40% likelihood of sustaining below $3100 amid regulatory headwinds.

3) 30% chance of sideways movement as market sentiment stabilizes.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread, buying calls at $3100 and selling at $3300, anticipating a medium-term rally. This approach capitalizes on recent price stability and leverages the overall historical trend towards recovery, affording high reward/risk with positive edge.

September 16, 2024