SGML Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: SGML's projected production ramp-up, strategic partnerships, and bullish sentiment in commodities could drive significant upside.


Bearish Case: SGML's internal management problems, pending lawsuits, and recent price decline pose substantial risks, further compounded by earnings forecast cuts.


Potential Outcomes: Buyout materializes (30%), successful expansion (65%), lawsuit resolution (45%). Comprehensive risk evaluation adjusts probabilities.


Trading Oracle: Trade a bullish long volatility strategy. Consider January 2025 $16/$20 call debit spread, leveraging undervalued vol surfaces, high upside potential, and 50% probability of profit. Maximizes reward/risk amidst positive implied volatility disparity.


July 01, 2024


Sigma Lithium Forecast

SGML      Sigma Lithium











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SGML



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.76)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.71)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.33)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.67)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SGML



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.33)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.71)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.76)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SGML



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.76)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.71)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.33)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.67)





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