SHM Forecast


Bullish Case: SHM’s bullish outlook is supported by steady price stability over the past year and low implied volatility, suggesting a bearish sentiment is overextended. Developments in SHM technology might drive future growth.


Bearish Case: Continued flat price action and low historical returns increase the likelihood of minimal future price appreciation. Elevated implied volatility in near-term options signals potential downside risk.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Price Stabilization (20%): Continued flat movement in SHM near current levels.

2. Price Decline (35%): SHM falls below $47 due to economic downturn.

3. Minor Price Increase (25%): Slow improvement up to $48 driven by new tech adoption.

4. Sharp Increase (20%): Unexpected strong economic data spikes SHM.


Trading Oracle: Executing a short volatility position aligns with observed low price fluctuations and minimal historical returns, favoring credit spreads. Consider bear call spreads or short straddles. Position: Bearish, Time Outlook: 3-4 months.


June 28, 2024


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STNE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNE  StoneCo (0.9)


CUBI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CUBI  Customers Bancorp (0.89)


PVH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PVH  PVH (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SHM



AGQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGQ  ProShares Ultra Silver (-0.0)


CRTO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRTO  Criteo (0.0)


NWL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NWL  Newell Brands (-0.0)


ILMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ILMN  Illumina (0.0)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SHM



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CRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRK  Comstock Resources (-0.82)


TH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TH  Target Hospitality Corp (-0.87)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.89)


SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRS  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.9)





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