Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: A potential recovery in Egypt's economy aligns with Sisi's strategic partnerships, enhancing investor confidence. Historical data suggests a 12% return likelihood over 1-2 years, possibly spurring bullish sentiment in SISI.

Bearish Case: Geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding Gaza, could hinder market stability and lead to further price declines. Historical patterns indicate persistent risks with potential for negative returns, especially in the short term.

Potential Outcomes:

• Geopolitical resolution allowing for price recovery (30% chance).
• Mean reversion leading to stabilization around $2.00 (35% chance).
• New geopolitical escalations causing further declines (25% chance).
• Positive trade deals driving growth (10% chance).

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a bullish debit spread with SISI strikes positioned around $2.00, targeting a 30-60 day expiration. This setup leans on potential geopolitical stabilization with high reward:risk ratios if market confidence grows, while keeping a close watch on volatility shifts and critical news events.

December 10, 2024