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SJB Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: A significant economic recovery could lead to reduced bond defaults, increasing SJB’s returns. Historical data shows likelihood of positive returns in such environments.



Bearish Case: Continued inflation and potential defaults might further depress SJB, as it's historically more likely to lose value over longer holding periods.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Economic recovery boosts SJB (25%).

2. Inflation spurs defaults (45%).

3. Geopolitical tensions increase (15%).

4. Risk-on sentiment prevails (15%).



Trading Oracle: Optimal strategy: long a bull call spread on SJB due to rising implied volatility, aiming for a reversal in high-yield bonds. Focus on near-term expiry for high probability of profit. The current environment supports gradual price movements with a positive risk-reward ratio.


January 10, 2025


ProShares Short High Yield Forecast

SJB        ProShares Short High Yield

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SJB


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (0.9)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (0.88)


IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (0.87)


AMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMR  Alta Mesa Resources (0.86)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SJB


DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (0.0)


NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (-0.0)


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (0.01)


BHVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHVN  Biohaven Pharmaceutical (-0.01)


HCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCC  Warrior Met Coal (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SJB


TT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TT  Trane (-0.89)


ORI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORI  Old Republic International (-0.89)


GWRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GWRE  Guidewire Software (-0.89)


ERJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERJ  Embraer (-0.9)


XLP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLP  Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (-0.92)







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