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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: A bullish case emerges with potential economic recovery predictions, increased options trading volume, and high historical returns (up to 115% in 2 years). Options data shows elevated implied volatility, suggesting traders anticipate significant price movement.

Bearish Case: The bearish case hinges on persistent price stagnation, signaled by a lack of upward momentum in historical returns and recent flat price action. High implied volatility may indicate market anxiety, which often leads to declines rather than gains.

Potential Outcomes:

1) 30% chance of a bullish reversal driven by favorable economic conditions.

2) 50% chance of continued stagnation reflected in historical price trends.

3) 20% chance of a bearish downturn from market corrections as indicated by current uncertainty levels.

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October 13, 2024