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SM Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Strong bullish sentiment stems from increasing energy demand and expected EPS growth, which may push stock prices upwards, with a potential return to historical highs if market conditions are favorable.



Bearish Case: High market volatility coupled with declining revenues can stress stock performance, projecting a bearish scenario in the near future, weakening investor confidence due to historical underperformance.



Potential Outcomes:

1) 35% chance of stable earnings driving a modest price rise.

2) 25% chance of revenue declines leading to price stagnation.

3) 20% chance of market volatility causing sharp price drops.

4) 20% chance of unexpected bullish catalysts rallying prices.



Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish long volatility strategy by buying 1 $45 call and selling 1 $47.5 call, expiring in about 28 days. This setup takes advantage of upcoming catalysts while maintaining a risk-controlled profile, with a potential return of 300% based on current volatility metrics. Aim for a 70% probability of profit.


October 20, 2024


SM Energy Forecast

SM        SM Energy

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SM


IEO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEO  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (0.92)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.91)


CNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNM  Core & Main (0.9)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.89)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.88)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SM


AMBC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMBC  AMBAC Financial (-0.0)


IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (-0.0)


COCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COCO  Vita Coco (-0.0)


NOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOW  ServiceNow (-0.0)


TERN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TERN  Terns Pharmaceuticals (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SM


FWRD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FWRD  Forward Air (-0.81)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.84)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (-0.85)


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERY  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (-0.85)


DRIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRIP  Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. (-0.95)







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