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SMCI Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Robust AI and HPC demand, alongside aggressive investment in infrastructure, could push SMCI's stock significantly higher amid increasing market optimism and potential of upward revisions to earnings forecasts.



Bearish Case: Ongoing accounting issues, heightened scrutiny from regulators, and overvaluation concerns may trigger further selling pressure, dictating negative sentiment and downward price adjustments for SMCI.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 60%: AI demand propels SMCI recovery, boosting stock.
  • 25%: Regulatory scrutiny leads to compliance issues, impacting price.
  • 15%: Overall market volatility disrupts tech securities negatively.



Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a short-term bullish debit spread by buying $40 calls and selling $45 calls, leveraging SMCI's high implied volatility forecast of over 150%. This allows for a positive risk/reward profile while hedging against bearish moves, capitalizing on potential AI-driven momentum.


November 26, 2024


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