Bullish Case: SMCI's proximity to the robust AI and HPC markets, along with positive analyst expectations, makes a compelling case for continued growth, despite recent stock dilution and volatility.


Bearish Case: Volatility due to S&P 500 inclusion, dilutive secondary stock offering, and concerns over rapid price surges indicates potential for near-term downward correction for SMCI.


Potential Outcomes: Price stabilization as market absorbs inclusion and offering effects (70%); post-offering sell-off deepens, leading to further correction (20%); unexpected sector events cause significant price shifts (10%).


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April 11, 2024


Super Micro Computer Forecast

SMCI        Super Micro Computer
Price Forecast: BULLISH    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)






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QQQM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [QQQM]  Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II - Invesco NASDAQ 100 (0.92)


SPYG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SPYG]  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth (0.92)


  [FERG]   (0.92)


USD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [USD]  ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (0.92)


CRH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CRH]  CRH Plc (0.92)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to SMCI



HPQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [HPQ]  HP (-0.0)


BG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [BG]  Bunge (0.0)


SIVR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SIVR]  Aberdeen Standard Physical Silver Shares (0.0)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [PTEN]  Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.0)


RWT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [RWT]  Redwood (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMCI



DOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [DOG]  ProShares Short Dow30 (-0.84)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [UVXY]  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.85)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [VXX]  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.87)


TECS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [TECS]  Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares (-0.9)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SPXS]  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)





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