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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish

Bullish Case: Helium's forecast suggests a 0.54% price increase, supported by high call option volume and relatively low market uncertainty as compared to Helium's implied volatility. Positive sector sentiment may strengthen SMH's price further.

Bearish Case: Increased market uncertainty and potential economic headwinds pose risks; a downturn in the semiconductor cycle, highlighted by high implied volatility, could lead to substantial declines in SMH prices, particularly if the AI demand diminishes.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued bullish momentum with a 60% chance;

2) Rangebound conditions around $230 with a 30% chance;

3) Downward pressure due to semiconductor weakness at 10% likelihood. External economic factors could influence these rates.

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September 12, 2024


VanEck Vectors Semiconductor Forecast

SMH      VanEck Vectors Semiconductor

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VGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGT  Vanguard Information Technology (0.99)


SPYG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYG  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth (0.99)


IVW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVW  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares S&P 500 Growth (0.99)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SMH


EOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOG  EOG Resources (-0.0)


KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (0.01)


ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (0.01)


COCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COCO  Vita Coco (-0.01)


KSS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KSS  Kohl's (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMH


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (-0.94)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.96)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.98)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.98)


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.99)



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