SMIN Forecast


Bullish Case: SMIN's current implied volatility shows signs of potential upward momentum, supported by lower market volatility forecasts and historical price trends indicating resilience. Positive sentiment around emerging markets and India's economic growth fosters optimism.


Bearish Case: Recent high implied volatility in short-dated puts suggests increased market fear, while weak historical price returns hint at potential downward pressure. SMIN's recent consolidation raises the risk of a pullback following prior gains.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued upward momentum (40%).

2) Market correction leading to decline (30%).

3) Stabilization with small fluctuations (20%).

4) Surge in volatility affecting pricing dynamics (10%).


Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish long call spread around $82, given SMIN's upward trajectory and lower market volatility awareness. Alternatively, consider a short put spread to capitalize on market uncertainty while defining risk. This strategy offers high potential profit relative to risk.


July 24, 2024


BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI India Small-Cap Forecast

SMIN      BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI India Small-Cap











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CAMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAMT  Camtek (0.94)


GDDY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GDDY  Godaddy (0.94)


SPOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPOT  Spotify Technology (0.93)


ALKT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALKT  Alkami Technology (0.93)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SMIN



NVAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVAX  Novavax (0.0)


OLN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLN  Olin (0.0)


TX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TX  Ternium S.A. - (-0.0)


ESTA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTA  Establishment Labs (-0.0)


WMG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMG  Warner Music (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMIN



YUMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YUMC  Yum China (-0.9)


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.91)


GPRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPRE  Green Plains (-0.91)


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (-0.92)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.93)





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