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SMMT Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: SMMT's drug potential, coupled with bullish sentiment and high call option volume, suggests optimism. Positive clinical updates could catalyze price rises, leveraging recent market interest.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility and recent negative price trends indicate risk. Market skepticism due to legal challenges may lead to downside as seen by past mean-reverting behaviors.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Successful clinical update drives stock up (+40%, 30% chance).
  • Regulatory/legal issues cause decline (-30%, 40% chance).
  • Market volatility leads to price fluctuation (+/-10%, 30% chance).



Trading Oracle: Bullish Long Volatility is ideal given the high implied volatility and potential for positive clinical updates. This strategy balances risk by leveraging the possibility of strong upward movements in SMMT's price.


April 10, 2025


Summit Therapeutics Forecast

SMMT        Summit Therapeutics

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SMMT


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ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (0.02)


FDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FDX  Fedex (-0.02)


IFF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IFF  International Flavors & Fragrances (-0.02)


FLNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLNC  Fluence Energy (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMMT


ATKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATKR  Atkore (-0.74)


STM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STM  New York Shares (-0.74)


M Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   M  Macy's (-0.77)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.78)


NFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFE  New Fortress Energy (-0.8)







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