Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Snowflake's strategic alignment with AI and strong partnerships enhances its revenue outlook, supported by high call volumes and favorable implied volatility across near-term strikes.

Bearish Case: Insider selling, high valuations, and looming macroeconomic pressures raise concerns about potential stock price declines, especially amid increased volatility reflected in current options pricing.

Potential Outcomes:

• 30% chance of strong earnings growth driving SNOW to $200 in Q1 2025.
• 40% possibility of stable performance between $160 and $175 due to mixed investor sentiment.
• 30% probability of price declining to $150 due to increased insider selling and macro uncertainties.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying SNOW $170 calls and selling $175 calls, targeting expiration in February 2025. This leverages current high implied volatility (58.6%) while minimizing risk amidst mixed market signals. Protective puts may be added for downside protection.

December 13, 2024