Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: The HHI sale enhances liquidity, allowing significant investments in growth. Positive call volume signals optimism among traders, suggesting potential upward momentum in SPB's price.

Bearish Case: High implied put volatility indicates strong market caution, signaling potential downward pressure on SPB's price. Continued macroeconomic challenges could dampen consumer confidence and spending.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Upward price movement with 55% likelihood, driven by earnings beat;

2) Market stabilization at current levels, 30% chance;

3) Declining trend due to macro challenges, 15% chance.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread strategy by buying the $90 strikes while selling the $95 strikes, as the outlook remains positive given strong liquidity and market sentiment. High volatility suggests premium selling could also be profitable, optimizing risk-reward.

October 20, 2024