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SPCE Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Potential revenue from Delta-class launches boosts prospects, supported by rising ticket sales. Recent price gains show rebound capacity.

Bearish Case: Continuous financial instability, high implied volatility, and operational delays increase bankruptcy odds. Price remains low with market uncertainty.

Potential Outcomes: Outcomes:

1. Delta success and revenue growth (25%),

2. Bankruptcy by 2026 (34%),

3. Stagnant growth amid competition (41%).

Trading Oracle: Trade bullish debit spreads focusing on near-term expirations. Exploit backwardation and high IV. Target strike prices below $5; capitalize on potential volatility shifts. Manage risk tightly, aiming for 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio.

February 21, 2025

Virgin Galactic Forecast

SPCE Virgin Galactic

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Assets that tend to move strongly with SPCE

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FLR Fluor (0.64)

LDOS Leidos (0.63)

EPI WisdomTree India Earnings (0.62)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPCE

CWH Camping World (-0.0)

SSRM SSR Mining (0.0)

ARWR Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (0.0)

BBW Build A Bear Workshop (-0.0)

RIOT Riot Blockchain (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPCE

CRSR Corsair Gaming (-0.56)

TAL TAL Education (-0.57)

BBWI Bath & Body Works (-0.58)

LABD Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.7)

CORN Teucrium Corn (-0.75)

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Trading Strategies

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