Bullish Case: Recent successful spaceflights and rising ticket prices suggest increasing customer demand. Additionally, the transition to Delta-class spacecraft could enhance operational efficiency, potentially boosting profitability.

Bearish Case: Ongoing financial instability and high operational costs raise severe bankruptcy risks, as evidenced by the 34% chance of filing before 2026, reflecting significant investor anxiety.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance SPCE increases ticket sales and achieves profitability due to increased demand.

2. 34% chance of bankruptcy due to continuous losses.

3. 20% chance of acquisition by a stronger competitor improves operational outlook.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bear-spread strategy by selling November 29, 2024, 7.50 P and buying 6.50 P to capitalize on high IV. This captures a favorable risk/reward ratio amid declining SPCE sentiment, expecting minimal movement. Also, a bullish strategy on delta calls might fetch gains if flight demand surges post-Delta class.

November 21, 2024