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Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Virgin Galactic's transition to Delta spacecraft and potential commercial success could trigger revenue growth, improving financial stability. Upcoming flight milestones may boost investor confidence and demand for space tourism.



Bearish Case: Persistent delays and high cash burn rate continue to pose financial risks, with potential bankruptcy looming by 2026. Intense competition and regulatory challenges further threaten the stock, exacerbating volatility and investor skepticism.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Commercial space flight success - 25%.
  • Bankruptcy by 2026 - 34%.
  • Acquisition by a competitor - 20%.
  • Increased regulatory and competition pressure - 21%.


May 04, 2025


Virgin Galactic Forecast

SPCE        Virgin Galactic

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