SPD Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Historical return trends show consistent positive gains. SPD's market mean reversion indicates potential for upside recovery, supported by relatively lower long-term volatility.




Bearish Case: High short-term implied volatility reflects market unease, suggesting potential for a downside correction, especially with external macroeconomic pressures.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Price increases: 55% due to historical gains and stabilization patterns.
  • Price declines: 30% caused by high short-term volatility.
  • Price remains stable: 15% as market sentiment balances out.



July 12, 2025


Simplify Exchange Traded Funds - Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity Forecast

SPD        Simplify Exchange Traded Funds - Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPD



IGV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGV  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector (0.84)


MTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTZ  Mastec (0.83)


QQQM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QQQM  Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II - Invesco NASDAQ 100 (0.8)


AIQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AIQ  Global X Funds - Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology (0.79)


RCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RCL  Royal Caribbean (0.79)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPD



HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.0)


SCHD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHD  Schwab US Dividend Equity (0.01)


SMG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMG  Scotts Miracle-Gro (0.01)


DXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXC  DXC Technology (-0.01)


SABR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SABR  Sabre (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPD



OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (-0.6)


SARK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SARK  Tuttle Capital Short Innovation (-0.61)


CAG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAG  Conagra Brands (-0.61)


BMRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMRN  Registered Shares (-0.76)


SPXU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXU  ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 (-0.88)









Become a more profitable trader with AI optimized trading strategies






×

Chat with SPD


 Ask any question about SPD!