SPD Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: SPD's growth trajectory continues with moderate implied volatility suggesting upside potential. Historical data reveals positive returns over various holding periods, and current positive price action supports optimism.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility at lower strikes suggests potential downturns, particularly with increased market uncertainty. Skepticism about fund strategies amidst a flat social media sentiment indicates risk.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Price increase (55%)—historically favorable returns, recovering trajectory
  • Price stabilization (30%)—current flat price action and moderate volatility
  • Price decrease (15%)—high volatility and strategic skepticism



June 04, 2025


Simplify Exchange Traded Funds - Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity Forecast

SPD        Simplify Exchange Traded Funds - Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPD



IGV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGV  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector (0.82)


ACWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACWI  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI ACWI (0.81)


AXON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXON  Axon Enterprise (0.79)


BWXT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BWXT  BWX (0.77)


QQQM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QQQM  Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II - Invesco NASDAQ 100 (0.76)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPD



ACMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACMR  ACM Research (-0.0)


CMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMC  Commercial Metals (0.01)


XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (-0.01)


CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (-0.02)


HL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HL  Hecla Mining (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPD



KHC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KHC  Kraft Heinz (-0.54)


XLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLV  Health Care Select Sector SPDR (-0.55)


KRYS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KRYS  Krystal Biotech (-0.57)


AMGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMGN  AMGEN (-0.6)


BMRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMRN  Registered Shares (-0.69)









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