Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Spotify’s positioning for growth amidst rising user engagement and strong institutional interest suggests potential upside. With SPOT's volatility remaining lower than market expectations, this could encourage bullish trading strategies.

Bearish Case: Increasing competition in the streaming space and market volatility may exert substantial pressure on Spotify's growth, leading to a potential decline in stock performance, particularly if quarterly results disappoint.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive earnings surprising investors, raising SPOT by 20% (20% chance).

2. Intensified competition causing market share loss, dropping SPOT by 15% (40% chance).

3. Stable growth due to renewed engagement, SPOT rising by 10% (30% chance).

4. Market-wide corrections leading to SPOT declines (10% chance).

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish strategy using a put credit spread: sell the $447.5 strike put and buy the $430 put expiring in ~7 days. With high delta and a 75% probability of profit, this approach leverages Helium's favorable edge while balancing risk.

November 17, 2024