SPXU Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Despite SPXU's historical mean reversion and long-term downtrend, increased market volatility and recent bullish spikes indicate potential short-term upside. Current low trading volumes and the 5.1% five-year gain also support short-term gains.


Bearish Case: SPXU's long-term mean-reverting nature and historical underperformance against S&P 500 suggest a bearish outlook. The term structure's flat implied volatility and current bearish risk (30% higher) further strengthen a bearish sentiment.


Potential Outcomes: 25% chance of short-term bullish movements due to market volatility; 65% probability of continued downtrend, aligned with historical trends; 10% likelihood of unexpected market crash boosting SPXU due to heightened uncertainty.


Trading Oracle: Trade short-term bullish: Buy $27.5 Call, Sell $29.0 Call expiring in ~10 days. High risk/reward with a 25% chance of market correction. Capitalize on implied volatility discrepancies and mean reversion leveraging Helium's analysis, optimizing decay capture and potential alpha.


July 10, 2024


ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 Forecast

SPXU      ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPXU



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.48)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.27)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.45)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.45)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPXU



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.27)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.45)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.48)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPXU



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.48)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.27)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.45)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.45)





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