SSD Forecast


Bullish Case: SSD's recent performance and strong market positioning suggest potential growth driven by construction sector resilience, coupled with low implied volatility, indicating less market fear and opportunities for upward price movement.


Bearish Case: Recurring insider selling and mixed earnings signals could signal underlying weaknesses. Heightened competition and macroeconomic factors may pressure SSD margins, leading to potential declines in stock performance.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Strong earnings surprise leading to 20% upside (40%).

2. Market correction due to macroeconomic pressures causing 15% drop (30%).

3. Steady price fluctuation around $180 for 6 months (20%).

4. Unexpected regulatory issues resulting in 10% downturn (10%).


Trading Oracle: Set up a debit spread on SSD to capitalize on potential bullish momentum: Buy 2 $180 Calls and Sell 1 $200 Call expiring in September. This strategy has a high probability of profit due to recent bullish sentiment and low short-term volatility.


July 24, 2024


Simpson Manufacturing Co. Forecast

SSD      Simpson Manufacturing Co.











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SSD



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.53)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.0)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.23)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.24)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SSD



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.0)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.23)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.24)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.53)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SSD



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.53)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.0)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.23)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.24)





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