STAG Forecast


Bullish Case: Robust secular demand due to e-commerce expansion and strong occupancy rates; institutional interest and portfolio acquisitions enhance potential for rent increases and FFO growth.


Bearish Case: Economic slowdown risks hurt demand; elevated dividend payout ratio pressures cash flow sustainability; rising interest rates may dampen further valuation expansion.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued e-commerce growth sustains rental demand and drives upward price trajectory (60%).

2. Economic downturn, rising interest rates pressure valuation (30%).

3. Mean reversion results in moderate price correction (10%).


Trading Oracle: Initiate bull call spread with December 2024 expiry, buying the 35C and selling the 40C. This setup leverages low implied volatility, e-commerce tailwinds, and robust sector fundamentals, positioning for upside with contained downside risk.


July 18, 2024


STAG Industrial Forecast

STAG      STAG Industrial











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with STAG



DRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRN  Direxion Real Estate Bull 3x Shares (0.89)


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.86)


CTSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTSH  Cognizant Technology (0.86)


MFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFA  MFA Financial (0.85)


WBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBS  Webster Financial (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to STAG



BCRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCRX  Biocryst Pharmaceuticals (-0.0)


IGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGT  International Game Technology (0.0)


WEC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WEC  WEC Energy (0.0)


JNUG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNUG  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bu (0.0)


NOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOC  Northrop Grumman (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against STAG



TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.72)


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.73)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.74)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.76)


SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRS  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.78)





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