STIP Forecast


Bullish Case: STIP's historical return surface shows positive likelihood clusters for holding periods of 1 year, indicating potential recovery from current levels. Implied volatility surfaces suggest a decrease in long-term uncertainty.


Bearish Case: Current trading levels of STIP are at a long-term loss from two years and ten years ago, implying potential long-term bearish trends. Implied volatility is elevated in short-term strikes, suggesting risk aversion.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued stagnation around current levels (50%): Historical data shows limited large returns.

2. Moderate upside to $102 (30%): Positive return clusters for ~1-year holding periods.

3. Decline to $95 (20%): Persistent long-term losses and high short-term volatility support downside risk.


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June 28, 2024


BlackRock Institutional Forecast

STIP      BlackRock Institutional











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