Bullish Case: Stellantis could recover as EV segment gains traction with anticipated model launches, solidifying market share amidst increasing demand for sustainable solutions, particularly with government incentives favoring EVs.

Bearish Case: Ongoing job cuts due to restructuring and labor unrest may severely impact production capacity, leading to missed revenue targets and declining investor confidence, risking further stock depreciation.

Potential Outcomes:

• 1. Successful EV launch boosts sales (60% chance)
• 2. Continued labor disruptions affecting production (30% chance)
• 3. Market recovery post-restructuring (40% chance)
• 4. Regulatory changes enhance EV incentives (50% chance)

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread on STLA focusing on 2025 calls to capitalize on potential price recovery from anticipated EV sales growth. Risk managed with strikes just ITM, aiming for high probability of profit as market sentiment shifts positively post-labor resolution.

December 01, 2024