STNE Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: STNE's fintech growth in Brazil, coupled with an increase in active clients and Payments Volume, indicates sustained demand and revenue growth potential. Decreasing implied volatility suggests stabilization, enhancing long-term prospects.


Bearish Case: Economic instability in Brazil, continuing currency fluctuations, and high reliance on macros factors could hinder STNE's growth. Recent mean-reverting price action implies limited upside with high potential for continued declines.


Potential Outcomes: 40% chance STNE experiences modest growth, consistent fintech sector expansion.
35% chance of continued decline due to volatile economic conditions.
25% chance of stagnation influenced by macroeconomic instability.


Trading Oracle: Opt for a bearish short volatility strategy: sell 2 $12.0 strike call options, buy 3 $13.0 strike call options expires in ~23 days. Market odds of profit: 82%, Helium odds of profit: 88%, capturing premium amid high near-term volatility. Positive edge, high reward:risk.


June 27, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with STNE



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.38)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.07)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.1)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.22)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to STNE



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.07)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.1)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.22)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.38)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against STNE



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.38)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.07)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.1)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.22)





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