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SUI Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Sun Communities benefits from strong fundamentals in the manufactured housing sector, with consistent dividend growth and strategic market positioning in the U.S., U.K., and Canada.

Bearish Case: High volatility and recent declines indicate potential risks from macroeconomic headwinds and valuation concerns. Elevated put volume suggests persistent bearish sentiment and potential for further price pressure.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Recovery due to dividend attraction (40%).

2. Stagnation from valuation concerns (35%).

3. Decline due to macroeconomic factors (25%).

Trading Oracle: Initiate a long call debit spread on SUI, targeting strikes around $130-$135, expiring in 60-90 days. This strategy captures potential bullish outcomes, leveraging current low implied volatility and mean-reversion tendencies. Monitor closely for macro developments and adjust if volatility spikes.

January 30, 2025

Sun Communities Forecast

SUI Sun Communities

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SUI

VRNS Varonis Systems (0.79)

FXY Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (0.78)

MAS Masco (0.7)

VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.69)

ITB BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (0.65)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SUI

ING ING Groep (-0.0)

SUPV Grupo Supervielle S.A. (0.0)

ARVN Arvinas (-0.01)

ARGT Global X Funds - Global X MSCI Argentina (0.01)

DAR Darling Ingredients (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SUI

LABD Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.6)

TMV Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.64)

ETR Entergy (-0.65)

GTE Gran Tierra Energy (-0.66)

SNAP Snapchat (-0.68)

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