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SVIX Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: SVIX's recent uptick in demand for put options indicates rising market volatility ahead. As the term structure shows potential spikes, a favorable economic event could propel SVIX prices upwards. Historical mean reversion supports this scenario.



Bearish Case: Despite volatility spikes, ongoing economic stability may suppress SVIX prices. The flat implied volatility structure suggests limited short-term upside, while upcoming geopolitical tensions introduce risks that could favor renewed bearish sentiment.



Potential Outcomes:

1) 30% chance of a volatility spike leading to a price rise above $33.

2) 40% possibility of stability causing price to hover around $27.

3) 20% chance of geopolitical risks triggering rapid downside to $24.

4) 10% risk of extreme scenarios driving prices below $20.



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November 14, 2024


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SIMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIMO  Silicon Motion Technology (0.88)


LRCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRCX  Lam Research (0.85)


VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (0.85)


CLW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLW  Clearwater Paper (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SVIX


AGO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGO  Assured Guaranty (0.0)


AHCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AHCO  AdaptHealth (0.0)


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (0.0)


PACB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PACB  Pacific Biosciences of California (-0.0)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SVIX


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XEL  Xcel Energy (-0.76)


YOU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YOU  Clear Secure (-0.78)


LUMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LUMN  Lumen (-0.78)


NOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOC  Northrop Grumman (-0.78)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.94)







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