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SWBI Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: The recent legal proceedings favoring SWBI against Mexico’s lawsuit bolster investor confidence. Upcoming product innovations and potential market recovery further support a bullish sentiment on the stock.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility signals market uncertainty, compounded by trends in declining sales and legal challenges, suggesting potential downside risks ahead for SWBI's stock price.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Legal victory boosts stock (+15% chance of +20%).
  2. Continued market volatility leads to price stagnation (+40% chance).
  3. Legal challenges impact earnings negatively (-30% chance).
  4. Significant product innovation drives long-term growth (+15% chance).



Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish strategy by buying SWBI $14 calls and selling $15 calls expiring in 30 days, capitalizing on potential upward movement due to market sentiment or legal outcomes. Expected profitability with low risk, leveraging current high volatility.


December 04, 2024


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SWBI        Smith & Wesson Brands

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Assets that tend to move strongly with SWBI


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MPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPC  Marathon Petroleum (0.78)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.78)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.77)


AVDL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVDL  Avadel Pharmaceuticals (0.76)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SWBI


TEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TEL  Registered Shares (0.0)


AA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AA  Alcoa (-0.01)


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (0.01)


ACAD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACAD  Acadia Pharmaceuticals (-0.01)


X Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   X  United States Steel (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SWBI


GILD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GILD  Gilead Sciences (-0.73)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (-0.73)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (-0.73)


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XEL  Xcel Energy (-0.74)


AUPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AUPH  Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (-0.8)







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