SWBI Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: SWBI's product innovation and potential legal victories could catalyze growth. Support from influential platforms enhances brand visibility, fostering consumer interest.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and recent price declines signal market uncertainty. Legal challenges and declining demand highlight potential risk, suggesting caution.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. 20% SWBI price rebound due to legal victories and innovation.
  2. 40% continued high volatility amid uncertainty.
  3. 40% further price decline from regulatory and demand pressures.




Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish long volatility strategy with debit spreads. Buy $10 strike puts, sell $8 strike puts expiring in 60 days. Capture downside and leverage high implied volatility. High probability of profit with manageable risk from potential decline.



January 15, 2025


Smith & Wesson Brands Forecast

SWBI        Smith & Wesson Brands











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OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SWBI



HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (0.0)


MCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCK  Mckesson (0.01)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.01)


OTIS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OTIS  Otis Worldwide (0.02)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SWBI



ALHC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALHC  Alignment Healthcare (-0.78)


VSCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSCO  Victoria's Secret (-0.79)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (-0.79)


NOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOW  ServiceNow (-0.8)


TAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAC  Transalta (-0.83)









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