Bullish Case: TD is still flat while “bullish risk” outweighs “bearish risk” by ~35%. On the TD IV surface, upside strikes sit in a calmer IV band than the deep-put tail, and the helium−market uncertainty map is mostly >0 near today’s price region over the next few weeks—consistent with underpriced upside convexity. Your earlier “modest uptrend” (40%) is the most aligned so far; the “rangebound” (25%) part also fits the lack of trend.

Bearish Case: Despite flat price, the TD IV surface keeps a pronounced high-IV deep-put wing, and the helium−market uncertainty map trends negative into the downside tail—suggesting market hedges for a crash scenario. With term structure flat, downside can reprice quickly if a late-June/early-July macro or credit headline hits (FOMC/CPI-style volatility impulse; TD earnings later in the summer). Your prior sharp selloff/tail (15%/5%) wasn’t realized yet, but remains falsifiable if skew expands materially.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 45% Chop/sideways (-2%..+5%): flat recent action + flat term structure.
2. 20% Modest rally (+6%..+10%): helium−market uncertainty mostly positive near current-price region; TD call convexity becomes valuable.
3. 20% Mild dip (-2%..-6%): put-leaning skew + risk-off market tape.
4. 10% Selloff (-8%..-15%): volatility/skew expansion if a macro/credit shock lands.
5. 5% Tail crash (-15%+): idiosyncratic downside already priced via deep OTM put IV spikes.

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June 19, 2026