Bullish Case: TECL could rise due to increasing bullish sentiment reflected in strong historical returns and higher call volume, coupled with an implied volatility structure suggesting upside potential. Current low prices may attract buyers looking for value.

Bearish Case: The market could see a downturn as high implied volatility in options may indicate caution among investors. Recent price stagnation and an overall flat term structure point towards potential corrections amidst market uncertainties.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price increase to $95 (40% probability).

2. Stagnation around $89 (45% probability).

3. Drop to $85 (15% probability). These probabilities are based on current market sentiment, historical performance, and volatility trends.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish strategy by selling a $90 strike put and buying a $85 strike put, expiring in ~35 days. This trade leverages short volatility, capturing high probability profit potential while minimizing risk in a consolidating market. Estimated return of 25% with a 72% success rate.

November 19, 2024