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TERN Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: The bullish case for TERN centers on forthcoming regulatory approvals for key therapies, which could drive stock prices higher and reduce negative sentiment significantly.



Bearish Case: The bearish scenario considers the increased likelihood of market rejection of new treatments, along with ongoing market volatility that may hinder TERN's recovery trajectory.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Regulatory approval (30%)
  • Market rejection of drugs (40%)
  • Strategic acquisition potential (15%)
  • Continued bearish market sentiment (60%)



Trading Oracle: Implement a debit spread strategy with TERN $6.00 call options for bullish exposure: buy $6.00 calls and sell $7.50 calls to capitalize on high implied volatility. Aim for a 1-3 month horizon to capture potential upside with manageable risk, supported by weak market dynamics for puts.


November 22, 2024


Terns Pharmaceuticals Forecast

TERN        Terns Pharmaceuticals

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TERN


IBB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IBB  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Biotechnology (0.8)


XLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLV  Health Care Select Sector SPDR (0.79)


CURE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CURE  Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X Shares (0.78)


ROST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROST  Ross Stores (0.76)


OLLI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLLI  Ollies Bargain Outlet (0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TERN


REAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REAL  Therealreal (-0.0)


AKBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AKBA  Akebia Therapeutics (0.0)


TGNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TGNA  TEGNA (0.01)


PENN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PENN  Penn National Gaming (-0.01)


AFRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AFRM  Affirm (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TERN


TX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TX  Ternium S.A. - (-0.6)


DAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAR  Darling Ingredients (-0.62)


HAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HAL  Halliburton (-0.62)


LAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LAC  Lithium Americas (-0.63)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.79)







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