TPB Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: TPB's strategic focus on alternative nicotine products and market expansion promises continued revenue growth, supported by the bullish AI forecast (+0.79%).




Bearish Case: TPB faces regulatory challenges and high debt, alongside a significant put-to-call volume discrepancy, indicating potential downside risk.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Continued Growth: 60% – Driven by alternative products and strategic moves.
  • Regulatory Challenges: 20% – Affecting profitability and stock prices.
  • Market Correction: 20% – Leading to a price dip due to economic shifts.




Trading Oracle: Consider a Bullish Short Volatility strategy due to high implied volatility and bullish forecast. Selling ATM puts while buying more OOTM puts capitalizes on positive price outlook and manages risk (https://heliumtrades.com/forecast/TPB/premium-printer/put).



March 08, 2025


Turning Point Brands Forecast

TPB        Turning Point Brands











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TPB



EVRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVRG  Evergy (0.97)


BCS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCS  Barclays (0.97)


AXP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXP  American Express (0.96)


VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (0.96)


CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (0.96)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TPB



MT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MT  New York Shares (-0.0)


ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (-0.01)


BZH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BZH  Beazer Homes USA (-0.02)


ODFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ODFL  Old Dominion Freight Line (-0.03)


PPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPH  VanEck Pharmaceutical (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TPB



AVNW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVNW  Aviat Networks (-0.92)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.93)


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.93)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.94)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.94)









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