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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Turning Point Brands is experiencing robust growth, with call options dominating trading volume, suggesting optimism. Increasing consumer acceptance and strong cash flows may propel prices upward.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility signals market uncertainty, coupled with a significant amount of bearish put options. If consumer trends shift or debt increases, TPB could face significant price pressure.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Continued growth in consumer acceptance (60% chance).
  • Market contraction due to economic shifts (25% chance).
  • Financial strain from elevated debt levels (15% chance).



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish strategy by entering a debit spread, buying 65.00 calls while selling 70.00 calls with a March 2025 expiration. This targets volatility spikes along with potential price rises, maximizing risk-reward balance. Monitor market data for sentiment shifts to adjust positions accordingly.


November 24, 2024


Turning Point Brands Forecast

TPB        Turning Point Brands

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TPB


MLI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MLI  Mueller Industries (0.97)


JXN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JXN  Jackson Financial (0.97)


FTAI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTAI  Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors (0.96)


ITA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ITA  BTC iShares U.S. Aerospac (0.96)


IAG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IAG  Iamgold (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TPB


TNK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TNK  Teekay Tankers (-0.0)


PTON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTON  Peloton Interactive (0.01)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (-0.02)


CLSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLSK  Cleanspark (-0.02)


UCTT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UCTT  Ultra Clean Hldgs (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TPB


PGNY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PGNY  Progyny (-0.92)


DLTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DLTR  Dollar Tree (-0.92)


CABA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CABA  Cabaletta Bio (-0.93)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.93)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.94)







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