TPB Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: TPB's impressive 155.3% increase in value over two years and high call volume suggest strong investor confidence HeliumHelium. Expected growth in alternative products adds to bullish potential Helium.




Bearish Case: Significant past price declines and current implied volatility suggest potential risks. High volatility in short-term puts signals uncertainty and possible price corrections Helium.




Potential Outcomes: Likely continued growth (65%) as consumer trends favor alternatives; 20% chance of regulatory challenges; 15% potential market-wide correction. High options volume suggests potential near-term movements HeliumHelium.




Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread using April 2025 TPB 60.00 and 70.00 calls. Implied volatility trends support this strategy, with a favorable risk-reward profile. Close as volatility normalizes post-March .



January 23, 2025


Turning Point Brands Forecast

TPB        Turning Point Brands











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TPB



CRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRS  Carpenter Technology (0.98)


VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (0.97)


MLI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MLI  Mueller Industries (0.97)


JPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JPM  JPMorgan Chase (0.96)


ERJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERJ  Embraer (0.96)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TPB



ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (0.0)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (-0.02)


PAYC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAYC  Paycom Software (0.02)


CARS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CARS  Cars.com (-0.03)


SMPL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMPL  Simply Good Foods (-0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TPB



WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.91)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.93)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.93)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.94)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.95)









Become a more profitable investor with AI optimized trading strategies






×

Chat with TPB


 Ask any question about TPB!