TPB Forecast




Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: TPB is up 113.5% over five years; implied volatility is slightly above market, indicating potential upward momentum. AI forecast is +1.56%.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility surface suggests market uncertainty. Historical return graph shows mixed long-term performance, with significant past declines.




Potential Outcomes: 60% chance of continued growth due to strong market position. 25% potential decline from market corrections. 15% chance of volatility-induced price drop.




Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread using TPB 07/18/2025 60 C and 70 C calls due to positive implied volatility and upward price forecast. Close position near April as market volatility may normalize, optimizing risk-reward balance.



December 24, 2024


Turning Point Brands Forecast

TPB        Turning Point Brands











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TPB



CRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRS  Carpenter Technology (0.98)


VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (0.97)


NFG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFG  National Fuel Gas (0.97)


MLI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MLI  Mueller Industries (0.97)


EVR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVR  Evercore (0.97)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TPB



ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (0.0)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (-0.02)


ATUS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATUS  Altice USA (-0.03)


DDOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDOG  Datadog (0.03)


UNIT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNIT  Uniti (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TPB



DLTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DLTR  Dollar Tree (-0.93)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.93)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.93)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.95)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.95)









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