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TPL Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: TPL's strategic land holdings in the energy-rich Permian Basin, coupled with high implied volatility, suggest potential for significant future returns.

Bearish Case: High valuation and dependence on volatile commodity prices, combined with mean reversion trends, could lead to downside risk.

Potential Outcomes: Sector growth boosts TPL with 60% (historical patterns support this).
Volatility induces declines, 40% chance (mean reversion observed).
Regulatory impacts, 30% chance (environmental concerns linger).

April 22, 2025

Texas Pacific Land Forecast

TPL Texas Pacific Land

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TPL

BK Bank Of New York Mellon (0.93)

JPM JPMorgan Chase (0.93)

ADP Automatic Data Processing (0.92)

AON Aon plc. - (0.92)

LNG Cheniere Energy (0.92)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TPL

EXAS Exact Sciences (0.0)

XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.0)

FEZ SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (-0.01)

CVX Chevron (0.01)

AA Alcoa (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TPL

AGEN Agenus (-0.84)

DG Dollar General (-0.85)

ADNT Adient (-0.85)

GES Guess (-0.85)

XRX Xerox (-0.86)

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