Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: TRGP's strong call volume indicates growing institutional confidence, alongside robust historical returns and favorable implied volatility that suggests undervaluation. Given the expected increase in natural gas demand, TRGP might experience price appreciation in the near term.

Bearish Case: Despite recent volume gains, TRGP faces legal challenges and high market volatility, which may deter investors. Overvaluation risks persist, along with potential pressures from insider selling, raising concerns about future price stability.

Potential Outcomes:

• 1. TRGP maintains strong volumes, leading to a 40% likelihood of price appreciation due to demand.
• 2. Legal issues impact earnings, with a 30% chance of price correction.
• 3. Increased natural gas demand boosts price by 20% likelihood.
• 4. General market downturn poses a 10% risk to TRGP's value.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish strategy by buying TRGP $200 calls and selling $205 calls with a 45-day expiry, capturing upside while hedging risk. Given 92% call volume dominance, a bullish stance is supported by an anticipated 25% upside in the next few months. Consider shorting high implied volatility puts for even better risk management.

November 15, 2024