Bullish Case: TRUE's focus on enhancing tech through AI could spur growth, especially with increased demand in used EVs and recent stock momentum. Mean-reverting tendencies can favor a bullish recovery.

Bearish Case: Volatility and competition in online car platforms pose significant risks, alongside financial instability and the recent downward price trend. The likelihood of continued downturn appears high due to these factors.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 35% chance of growth from AI and EV trends.

2. 40% risk of decline due to volatility.

3. 25% probability of stabilization without movement. Past predictions show mixed accuracy.

Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread: buy TRUE April 2025 5.00 C and sell 7.50 C. Capitalize on mean reversion and high implied volatility, aiming for profits within a 3-month timeframe. This strategy offers a positive edge with favorable risk-reward dynamics.

January 30, 2025