TTC Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Bullish sentiment is supported by low implied volatility levels (around 29% in late 2024), hinting at potential price stability and growth as market sentiment improves over time. Historical returns indicate positive outcomes for long-term holders.


Bearish Case: Bearish risks are evident from the high put trading volume (326% over calls) and flat implied volatility structures, suggesting increased anxiety among investors which could lead to price declines through the end of 2024.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% chance of modest recovery in TTC due to seasonal sales spikes.

2. 30% chance of continued flat performance if market conditions remain unchanged.

3. 20% chance of downturn from economic headwinds impacting consumer demand.


Trading Oracle: Utilize a bullish debit spread on TTC with a target price near $100, using options expiring in 30-60 days to capitalize on expected volatility increases. This strategy leverages current low market sentiment while allowing for upward potential as confidence rebounds.


July 24, 2024


Toro Forecast

TTC      Toro











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TTC



CVLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVLG  Covenant Logistics (0.77)


LITE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LITE  Lumentum (0.74)


VRNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRNT  Verint Systems (0.73)


MGM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MGM  MGM Resorts International (0.69)


LUV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LUV  Southwest Airlines (0.68)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TTC



GUSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GUSH  Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. (-0.0)


AGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGL  Agilon Health (0.0)


SAVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAVE  Spirit Airlines (-0.0)


MPW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPW  Medical Properties (0.0)


GFI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GFI  Gold Fields (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TTC



DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.43)


HPK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HPK  HighPeak Energy (-0.46)


REK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REK  ProShares Short Real Estate (-0.47)


CGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CGC  Canopy Growth (-0.5)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.65)





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