Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: The bullish sentiment for TTI hinges on upcoming catalysts in the lithium market and recent price stabilization. The expected rebound in EV demand and favorable market conditions could propel TTI back toward $5, as historical return data supports a likelihood of gains over the next 1-2 years.

Bearish Case: A bearish view on TTI arises from high implied volatility and market skepticism surrounding macroeconomic pressures, particularly inflation and interest rate hikes. This environment may compel investors to sell off and push TTI below $3, particularly if negative sentiment persists.

Potential Outcomes:

1) 40% chance TTI rebounds to $5 due to positive lithium market news.

2) 30% chance price stabilizes around $4.

3) 20% chance bearish trend continues, testing support around $3.

4) 10% chance price spikes above $5 due to unexpected catalysts in EV sector.

Trading Oracle: Given the current volatility landscape, consider a bullish debit spread by purchasing the TTI January 2025 $4.00 calls and selling $5.00 calls, capitalizing on possible upward momentum while limiting downside risk. However, monitor market news closely to adjust the strategy if bearish trends emerge.

November 15, 2024